How RFK Jr. Could Still Swing Results in Key Battleground States

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could still swing the results in key battleground states, despite suspending his presidential campaign.
At a press conference on Friday, Kennedy Jr. announced the decision and endorsed Donald Trump. “In my heart, I no longer believe that I have a realistic path to electoral victory. I cannot in good conscience ask my staff and volunteers to keep working their long hours or ask my donors to keep giving when I cannot honestly tell them that I have a real path to the White House,” Kennedy Jr. said.
He said that while he and the former president do not agree on everything, the former president had “brought together people from across the political spectrum grounded in the values of his father, Robert F. Kennedy, a great man, and his uncle John F. Kennedy.”
He encouraged people to vote for Trump in competitive states, adding: “In about 10 battleground states where my presence would be a spoiler, I’m going to remove my name, and I’ve already started that process and urge voters not to vote for me.”
However, multiple states have rejected requests by Kennedy Jr. to be removed from the ballot, meaning he will remain a contender in several places, including key swing states where the polls are very close. This includes North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He successfully took his name off the ballot in Arizona.
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s spokesperson said that Kennedy’s name would remain on the state’s ballots in November because “minor party candidates cannot withdraw.” A majority of state board members in North Carolina agreed removing Kennedy Jr. from the ballot would be impractical given that state law directs the first absentee ballots for the November 5 elections be mailed to requesters starting September 6.
Overall, Kennedy Jr. will remain on the ballot in up to 23 states, including Alaska, California, Colorado, Delaware, Hawaii, and Indiana, as well as Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and New Mexico. He will also appear on the ballot in North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Newsweek has contacted representatives of Kennedy Jr., and the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Following Kennedy Jr.’s decision to partly suspend his campaign, Newsweek spoke to experts about what impact he will have on the race in the swing states where he remains on the ballot.
Cygnal pollster Chris Lane said his withdrawal could affect the race by up to 16 points.
“RFK Jr. will continue to make an impact on this race. Prior to dropping out and endorsement of Trump, 16 percent of swing voters indicated they would be voting for him,” he said.
“The battleground states are razor-thin, meaning that 16 percent is an enormously important number and could quite literally determine the next president,” he noted.
On average, various polls have shown that there is little to no change when Harris and Trump compete in a head-to-head (without third-party candidates). For example, the latest Outward Intelligence poll, conducted between August 25 and 29, showed that the vice president had a 5-point lead over Trump in a direct contest. She maintained a 5-point lead when third-party candidates were included.
Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver’s model shows that when Kennedy Jr. is removed, it does not hurt Harris in the polls, with Trump only gaining 0.3 points.
However, polls have shown that Kennedy Jr.’s support is higher than average in some states, including Michigan and New Mexico.
For example, a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from early August showed Kennedy Jr. at 5 percent in Michigan and 8 percent in New Mexico. FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker also showed he was polling at 4.7 percent in Michigan on the day he dropped out. Nationally, he was polling at 3.6 percent.
For David Cohen, professor of political science at the University of Akron in Ohio, these figures could signal a problem for Trump in Michigan after polls have shown Kennedy Jr. takes more votes from Trump than Harris.
“I think Kennedy being on the ballot in Michigan is more of an issue for Trump than Harris. It gives disaffected Republicans a chance to vote for someone aligned with Trump rather than vote for Trump himself or a Democrat,” Cohen told Newsweek.
However, Cohen said that Kennedy Jr.’s presence on the ballot is unlikely to have any significant impact.
“I just think that relatively few people in a battleground state are weighing whether or not to vote for Harris versus Kennedy at this point,” he said.
“The fact of the matter is no one really knows what type of impact Robert Kennedy Jr.’s continued presence on the ballot in some battleground states may have. One of the reasons the Trump campaign worked hard to persuade Kennedy to drop out and endorse Trump was over worries that he would take more votes from Trump than Kamala Harris. Those concerns remain so Kennedy’s continued presence on some ballots complicates things. But it’s unclear at this point how or if it will ultimately impact the race,” Cohen said.
Mike Tappin, an honorary fellow at Keele University and co-author of American Politics Today, agreed, adding that Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal will have “minimal impact” on the election.
“We tend to see votes for third-party candidates diminish as the election date approaches,” he said. “In the case of RFK Jr. his polling figures have declined along with his campaign contributions, and his media appearances have completely dried up. By the time we reach November 5th, I would expect his name remaining on the ballot in certain states to have a minimal impact on the outcome in terms of how many votes he will receive.”
Tappin noted that Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal could even mean a boost in the polls for Harris.
“When RFK Jr. appeared on stage with Donald Trump, many believed most of the people who were supporting him would now naturally drift to Trump. However, Democratic Party values run deep in the Kennedy family and we’ve seen senior family members publicly express their disgust at RFK Jr.’s decision to become a Trump ally,” he told Newsweek.
“This has weight and could influence some would-be RFK Jr. voters to move in the direction of Kamala Harris instead.”
Polling by the Pew Research Center showed that after Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, many of Kennedy Jr.’s supporters decided to back a different candidate, with these voters picking Harris over Trump by two-to-one (39 percent to 20 percent).